Agricultural Drought in Ethiopia - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 234

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Table 17.1 Qualitative categorization of crop conditions
based on the percentage to which water requirement
needs are met
I % a % Yield Production condition

100 ≥ 100 Very good

95-99 90-100 Good

80-94 50-90 Average

60-79 20-50 Mediocre

50-90 10-20 Poor

< 50 ≤ 10 Complete failure

a I is the cumulative water requirement satisfaction index in the
crop water-balance computation.

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iss ued a national policy on disaster prevention and management (NDPPC;
Y ibra, 1996). The major disaster prevention and preparedness modalities
in clude development of an emergency food security reserve, national dis-
as ter prevention and preparedness fund, and seed reserve. The National
Committee for Early Warning can recommend that the NDPPC declare
the whole country or part of it as disaster areas, following which the gov-
ernment initiates possible actions to mitigate impacts of drought.

Line
——
0.9
——
Long
PgEn

Po tential Drought Research Needs
The complex nature of drought, coupled with its adverse consequences, still
is a challenge to scientists. In Ethiopia, the need to predict drought is great
because severe and prolonged droughts have multidimensional impacts
on the progress and development of the country's economy, including
su ffering and death for thousands of humans and livestock.

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Es tablishing Drought Prediction Methods
The existing knowledge about drought needs to be improved, and all
dr ought detection and monitoring methods have to be upgraded. New
fin dings are emerging for monitoring and forecasting of the global cli-
m ate system in near-real time. Faster communication technology is also
be ing developed to allow distribution and archiving of climate informa-
tio n. Investigations have to focus on the use of this information for better
pr ediction of drought. There are different indices for drought monitoring.
H owever, location- and crop-specific drought indices should be developed
for Ethiopia.

C onclusions and Recommendations
The historical documentation on drought shows that droughts occurred
in Ethiopia for many years, and since 1950 their occurrence has substan-
tially increased. In drought-stricken areas of Ethiopia, it is very difficult to