Agricultural Drought in Ethiopia - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 230

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253 BC to 1 AD, one drought or famine was reported in a seven-year period.
From 1 AD to 1500 AD, there were some cruel famines that killed millions.
In this period, a total of 177 droughts or famines occurred, about 1 in 9
years. From 1500 to 1950, the information is relatively based on recorded
data and is more reliable. From 16th to the first half of 20th century, 69
droughts or famines were reported during a period of 450 years. That
means, on average, droughts occurred once in seven years. The two no-
torious famines locally known as quachine and kifuken (bad days), which
devastated major areas of the country, were reported during this period.
The reports from 1950 onward are well documented and supported by sci-
entific data. The analysis of the rainfall data during this period indicate 18
droughts or famines in 38 years, resulting in one drought every two years.
The decadal analysis shows that the 1970-79 period was the worst, with
seven disasters. The highest frequency of droughts and famines was in the
2nd century AD, followed by the first part of 20th century, and there has
been an increasing trend from 16th century onward. The broad features of
low rainfall and associated droughts over northern parts of Ethiopia are
reflected in the Lake Tana, which feeds the Blue Nile. The water levels in
the Lake Tana at Bahir Dar and the rainfall deficiency at Gonder reflected
some of the major droughts such as the one in 1982. The worst period
appears to be the 1980s, and the worst drought year was 1984. The areas
that were affected severely by droughts/famines are mainly northern parts
of the country.

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Major Causes of Droughts
A tmospheric interaction, method of cultivation, selection of cropping pat-
te rn, inappropriate land use, and deforestation are important issues in the
co ntext of Ethiopian drought.

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A tmospheric Interaction

Droughts in Ethiopia occur mainly due to rainfall variability. Seasonal and
annual rainfall variations in Ethiopia are associated with the macro-scale
pressure systems and monsoon flows related to the changes in the pressure
systems (NMSA,1996b). The interactions between the pressure systems are
extremely complicated and to date are poorly understood (WMO, 1975a,
1975b, 1983, 1993). However, if any one of the rain-producing systems
in any season weakens, there will be an abnormal rainfall behavior during
that season. A recent study (Engida, 1999) indicates that the area with
st able rainfall activity has decreased, while the area with highly variable
ra infall has substantially increased. As a result, the frequency of droughts
ha s increased.

So il Erosion

Ethiopian farmers are still continuing unsustainable methods of cultiva-
tion, and winds and rains have eroded the topsoil. Due to the erosion,