Monitoring Agricultural Drought in the Near East - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 214

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Agricultural production in the region is strongly influenced by fluctu-
ations in precipitation. To show the impact of weather on production in
the region, barley is a suitable indicator crop because its production nearly
always relies on rainfall. If rainfall is inadequate for grain formation, barley
is not even harvested. Instead, its biomass is used for sheep grazing, thereby
accentuating the swings in national production statistics.
An example of the absolute production fluctuations for barley in Mo-
rocco during the 1961-2000 period is shown in figure 16.4. The straight
line represents the production trend. The relative scale of barley produc-
tion fluctuations in the major producing countries of North Africa and
West Asia is shown as a percentage deviation from the trend production
in figures 16.5 and 16.6. Severe production fluctuations closely follow the
precipitation fluctuations. An exception is Turkey, where the production
fluctuations are more attenuated because the higher precipitation levels en-
sure that the failure of barley crop is unlikely even in drought years.
Reports of severe droughts are common in the Near East. Cullen and
deMenocal (2000) reported droughts in Turkey during 1973, 1984, 1989,
and 1990. Prolonged drought periods were also reported in Morocco dur-
ing 1979-84 (Cullen and deMenocal, 2000) and 1994-95 (Zakaria, 2001).
In Tunisia, droughts occurred during 1988-89 and 1994-95 (Louati et al.,
1999). During the 1998-2000 period, both North Africa and West Asia
experienced the worst regional drought in decades. In West Asia drought
severely reduced food production in Jordan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. In 1999,
aggregate cereal production in the subregion was 16% lower than in the
previous year and 12% lower than the average over the last five years. In
Turkey, which normally contributes approximately 50% of subregional
grain production, output fell by 6% as compared to the five-year average
(GIEWS, 1999a). As Turkey is also the subregion's main cereal exporter,
the volume of exports from the subregion, normally around 5 million tons,
declined by about 50% (GIEWS, 1999a). In 2000, the drought forced Iran
to import 7 million tons of wheat, making it the world's largest importer
(United Nations Interagency Assessment Mission, 2001).
The situation in the Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) was
equally detrimental. As indicated by figure 16.5, the subregion's crop pro-
duction (excluding Egypt, where much of the crop is irrigated) has widely
fluctuated in recent years due to recurring droughts. From 1990 to 2000,
aggregate cereal production ranged from 4 to 8 million tons in 5 drought
years, and from 10 to 18 million tons in 5 good years (GIEWS, 2000a).
The 1999 cereal crop was also affected by drought, with the production
estimated at 8 million tons, which was 31% below the previous year's har-
vest. The year 2000 was the second consecutive year of reduced harvests in
the subregion, particularly in Morocco and Algeria, with increased cereal
imports putting more pressure on national budgets (GIEWS, 2000a).
Although droughts appear prominently in national-level agricultural
statistics, their effects at subnational and local levels can be devastating.
The drought episode of 1979-84 in Morocco reduced the small ruminant

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