Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
FIGURE 4 INDIA'S LIKELY COMMAND ARRANGEMENTS
imagined, at least in the case of conflict scenarios in southern Asia. To begin
with, there is no reason why Pakistan or China should pursue strategies of nuclear
decapitation, even if they are able to do so. Both states, if they were ever in a
situation where their nuclear weapons have to be actually used, would most
likely employ their weapons for purposes of strategic signaling rather than in
pursuit of counter-control objectives. Such employment requires the attacker to
deliberately eschew decapitating strikes because the national leadership of the
adversary must remain intact if a tacitly or explicitly negotiated termination of
conflict is to occur.
This does not imply that India should not treat the possibility of decapitation
seriously. It should, and if Indian discussions are any indication, it probably
will.
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The solution to potential decapitation lies in developing a proper system
for devolving authority and transferring strategic assets in an emergency. The
former would regulate how the legitimate power to authorize the employment of
nuclear weapons passes seamlessly from the prewar leadership to various
survivors in accordance with some pre-established and publicly recognized
procedures. The latter would regulate the myriad procedures defining how
nuclear weapons (or the components thereof) would be transferred from their
peacetime custodians, assembled for possible use, and finally reassigned to their
wartime users for final delivery to target when ordered to do so by the national
leadership.
When faced with the set of choices illustrated by
Figure 4
, India will therefore
institutionalize—if it has not done so already—a highly assertive system which
involves strict centralized control over both the distributed arsenal and nuclear
use decisions in peacetime, with authority and resources steadily devolving to
various legitimate successors and operational users respectively in the event of
strategic decapitation. This centralization would shift towards more
