Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
At the regional level, as an informal coalition in combating terrorism, Russia,
India and China may emerge as clear
status
quo
-oriented powers that specifically
do not want to see borders changed by force. It is notable that one of the key results
of Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji's visit to New Delhi in January 2002 was the
establishment of a joint forum against terrorism.
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Meanwhile, despite China's long-standing relationship with Pakistan, the
growing ties between the US and Pakistan may lead to a reconsideration of a
purely Pakistan-centered policy toward South Asia by China. Sino-US
convergence on the terrorism front is unlikely to be sufficient to negate other
clashing interests. The Bush administration's decision to withdraw from the Anti-
Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and pursue missile defences has the greatest
impact on China which fears that it could degrade the relatively small Chinese
nuclear arsenal (unlike Russia's). In mirror fashion, the palpable improvement in
Indo-US relations may stimulate the Russians to cultivate better ties with
Pakistan in a reversal of past policy.
In addition, a long-term American military presence in Central Asia, including
bases, runs counter to traditional Chinese and Russian preferences. Equally
important is the growing US influence in Central Asia
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and the disposition of
oil and gas in the region which has the potential to marginalize Chinese and
Russian prospects (and Iran for that matter), and lead to new resentment. A new
game of pipeline politics seems inevitable, and India and Russia could find
themselves at odds or in the same camp, depending on the route that the pipeline
ultimately takes.
CONCLUSION
India and Russia appear to have navigated the worst dips of their post Cold War
relations, restoring their ties to a respectable level, though not approaching
anything like their previous unique strategic partnership. There are no
overarching convergences of interests at the global level that are genuinely
strategic, and motivations at the bilateral level are essentially economic, thus
more likely to be dictated by market logic where a greater degree of
substitutability exists. Given that the economic dimension is based firmly on arms
transfers however, this constitutes a partial strategic link, especially from India's
perspective. The absence of any geopolitical antagonisms between the two
countries can only reinforce this techno-commercial link.
This paper has suggested that regional level calculations will prove to be most
decisive for India and Russia in their mutual relations. This thesis is even more
salient after the September 11, 2001 policy shifts. While Indo-Russian interests are
likely to converge most significantly at the regional level both in terms of
combating terrorism and being wary of a rising China, neither India nor Russia is
going to give primacy to the other in the development of foreign policy. This is
