Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Russia to continue reaping a double windfall and alleviate some of its financial
pressures in the process.
The Pakistan Factor
India's concern is at two levels with respect to China: a direct potential threat
from China and indirect one via China's assistance to Pakistan in the nuclear and
missile arena, as well as possible re-export of arms from Russia. 47 There is also
the possibility that Chinese-Pakistani joint military production could rely on
Russian weapons design transferred to China. Ostensibly, Russia's policy is to
avoid selling arms to two parties who are involved in a dispute, and the
leadership has openly declared that it would refrain from selling arms to Pakistan.
However, arms to India and China are justified on the grounds that the two
countries have engaged in confidence building measures related to the disputed
border. 48
Russia's commitment not to sell arms to Pakistan (at least not directly or
openly) appears firm enough though it is not out of the question that the Russians
may reconsider its hands-off approach to Pakistan for other reasons. In this
connection, Putin's decision to send his special envoy, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, to
Pakistan on the eve of the Russian leader's trip to India in October 2000, and the
revelation that Putin himself had accepted a Pakistani invitation, no doubt gave
India a jolt. Pakistan took the initiative in reaching out to Russia, but the
Russians appear very receptive. A major reason is that Russia believes Pakistan
can play an important role in containing Islamic fundamentalism in the region.
On the Pakistani side, the military leadership had been seeking ways to
overcome the international isolation it faced prior to September 11, especially as
the US discovered much stronger convergence of economic and political
interests with India. Playing into Russia's vulnerability, General Pervez
Musharraf dispatched the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Lt. General
Mahmood Ahmed, to Russia in August 2001, signaling that Pakistan may be
ready to address Russia's concerns on terrorism and drug trafficking emanating
from Afghanistan.
At the same time, Putin's message to the Indian Parliament left little doubt
that Russia and India were besieged by the same phenomenon and that they
needed to join forces in the fight against terrorism. He revealed serious
misgivings about Pakistan's role in encouraging terrorism which are unlikely to
disappear, and stated that 'The same people are organizing terrorist attacks from
the Philippines to Kosovo, including Kashmir, Afghanistan and Russia's north
Caucusus…' 49
Russia's newly apparent willingness to deal with Pakistan, after keeping it at
arms length for decades, may also be motivated by what it sees as India's
warming up to the US. Prime Minister Vajpayee's description of India and the
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