Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
The momentum in Indo-US relations may slow since the attacks in New York
and Washington with India taking a 'wait and see' attitude.
Some Indian commentators have been urging the Vajpayee government to be
more vocal in pointing out Pakistan's historic complicity with the Taliban, but
officials have demurred, with Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh pointing out that
'now was not the time to shout from the rooftops about Pakistan'.
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There is no
reason to expect that the upswing in Indo-US relations, in part based on a shared
concern about a rising China, but also rooted in economic logic, cannot be
sustained independent of the US need for Pakistan. Conversely, there is no
reason to expect India to shift gears toward the Russians simply because of an
understandably rough patch in Indo-US relations, since the calculus of gains to
be had from closer ties to the US over Russia in its current discombobulated state
seems to have been understood by New Delhi.
At the global level, it may be said that Indo-Russian relations have suffered in
the post-Cold War period due to the absence of significant variables that would
inexorably pull the two countries together, but by the same token, there are no
overriding strategic divergences either. This lack of any serious disagreements
together with some very real material benefits that they could derive from a
techno-commercial relationship is becoming evident at the bilateral level. Unlike
their past special relationship though, the new bilateral ties are largely devoid of
genuine strategic content and the question is the extent to which sufficient
momentum can be generated to take the new relationship to an enhanced level.
BILATERAL LEVEL: THE TECHNO-COMMERCIAL
IMPULSE
The end of the Soviet era posed special difficulties for India, particularly in the
military realm given its huge dependency on Soviet arms transfers for spare parts
and equipment. During this crunch, the Indian Defense Ministry was even forced
to turn to Ukraine and East European states as a stop gap measure.
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As Indo-
Soviet ties unraveled at a dizzying speed, India faced multiple crises in the
security and economic spheres, with not only its strategic framework in
shambles, but also in the financial sector, where the country was left with just
enough foreign exchange to cover a fortnight's worth of imports.
Russia could offer no help for the latter emergency even if it wished to do so,
revealing its stark limitations and lopsided development. Indeed, the rupee-ruble
arrangement that had earlier been viewed as innovative and uniquely helpful,
became a burden to both countries and only complicated India's financial
situation. Besides, in India's view, Russia was unceremoniously dumping its
erstwhile 'special' partner with unseemly haste in the new Russia's rush into the
western fold.
