Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
5
Asymmetrical Indian and Chinese Threat
Perceptions
JOHN W.GARVER
ASYMMETRIC THREAT PERCEPTIONS
A curious but important characteristic of India-China relations is the existence of
asymmetric perceptions of mutual threat between those two countries. Indians
tend to be deeply apprehensive regarding China.
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Chinese, on the other hand,
tend not to perceive a serious threat from India, and find it difficult to understand
why Indians might find China and its actions threatening. This paper will analyze
these asymmetrical Indian and Chinese threat perceptions.
The following discussion will begin by documenting in three ways the
existence of asymmetrical Indian and Chinese threat perceptions: (1) by
comparing the official security statements of the two sides, (2) by analyzing the
content of élite foreign policy journals, and (3) by looking at the contrasting
security views of the two sides apparent at the time of India's May 1998 nuclear
tests. After empirically substantiating the existence of symmetrical threat
perceptions in these various ways, this article will advance explanations of this
phenomena at two different levels of analysis.
The first explanation will be in terms of the nature of the role played by
China's public media in China's political system. At this level the argument will
be that the mobilization function of the Chinese media leads that media to
systematically downplay Indian threats to China's security interests. Since
foreign analysts rely on China's public media for explication of Chinese views of
India, and since most Chinese must also rely on the same sources for their views
of India, the consequence is presentation of a rosy picture of Sino-Indian relations
with conflictual elements being systematically downplayed.
The second and more fundamental explanation will be in terms of the history
of the relative success of China and India over the past 50 years in shaping the
now-existing pattern of international relations in the region. Here the argument
will be that China's moves to counter India over the last decades have been
essentially successful, while Indian efforts to counter China have essentially
