Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
the probability of this scenario emerging as a stable dominant model for
the majority of the literature is low.
Probability of dominance: Low
Benefits of OA: Not fully achieved
Preservation: Journals and repositories
Costs: Higher than present
Result: Order
Scenario 2: subvention
In this scenario funding is made available for author-side payments and
there is a managed transition to OA publishing, whether or not there is
widespread adoption of manuscript archiving leading to subscription
cancellations. Journals therefore switch from a subscription model to an
OA publishing mode of operation. Since the author-side payment
mechanism does not conflict with manuscript archiving, journals are
therefore able to sustain their operation and continue to provide the
certification function on the literature. Journals may be more likely to
allow the archiving of the Version of Record, but then again, they may
not, in order to ensure that they generate web traffic, should this be
important (and it probably will be, for example, for brand
reinforcement or marketing to potential authors). The system would
save on subscription costs, but most if not all of this expenditure would
be transferred to author-side fees. The system would also have to bear
the costs of manuscript archiving. Preservation and curation costs
would also be duplicated. In addition, each article would be likely to
appear in multiple repositories (given that more and more articles have
authors from more than one institution, and the probable outcome that
authors would need to archive in both institutional and subject
repositories). Overall system costs would therefore be higher than in the
present system, but the benefits of OA would be fully achieved and they
might outweigh the costs. As mentioned previously, journals funded by
author-side payments already appear viable in some well-funded
disciplines, but in other fields the costs of publication are likely to be a
much greater proportion of overall research grants - perhaps more than
100% - and for this reason it is unlikely that this will be the dominant
scenario for all disciplines of academic endeavour in the short to
