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output from China and India is already challenging publishers. Russell
says: 'We can expect a truly dramatic increase in the quantity, quality
and impact of Chinese research. Many observers believe that India is
around five years behind China.'
But the ever increasing output of scholarly journals and articles has
created, and will continue to create, a major problem for libraries. The
so-called 'serials crisis' - the inability of library budgets to keep up with
the proliferation of published journals - has been an enduring topic in
the library literature for many decades.
Librarians and publishers do need to find a solution to the current
dilemma. It is important to the survival of both parties that scholars
continue to have access to the research literature. At a strategic level,
academic institutions should also be concerned. A recent research report
from the UK's Research Information Network (RIN, 2009) shows that
even at the current level of spend, e-journals represent good value for
money. Users in UK universities downloaded some 102 million articles in
2006-7, at an average cost of 80 pence per article. However, even more
importantly, the spend and the use of e-journals in an academic
institution correlate with research outcomes. The research found that per
capita expenditure and use of e-journals is strongly and positively cor-
related with the number of papers published, the number of PhD awards
and the number of successful research grants awarded to an institution.
Given that funding bodies worldwide use such metrics to establish
institutional funding levels, vice-chancellors do need to take heed. It is up
to librarians to ensure that their voices are heard by higher authorities,
and this will continue to be an important role for library consortia and
library professional bodies at a national and international level.
There is however, another possible solution.
Open Access
While libraries have traditionally focused on the purchase of journals,
the electronic environment has opened up new possibilities. Electronic
publishing offers authors the possibility of making their publications
freely available on the internet. This is known as Open Access (OA) and
it is gaining momentum among both librarians and authors.
There are a number of OA models. Harnad (a major protagonist of
OA) identifies two types - 'green' and 'gold' (Harnad et al., 2004). In
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