Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
9
Any strategic approach to catchment flood risk
management must take explicit account of the
drivers that may alter land use and management
in the future, with consequences for future flood
risk. This necessitates the adoption of a broad
holistic modelling framework such as DPSIR-
BSM that encompasses the climatic and social
drivers, the prediction of impacts, and the inte-
grated assessment of response measures based on
economic, social and environmental sustainabil-
ity criteria.
would allow impacts to be uncovered are not
generally available.
3
As a consequence of point 2, the impact at
catchment scale of a range of local-scale mitiga-
tion measures distributed across the catchment
landscape is unknown, and predictions of impact
must await the outcomes of field experiments and
new model developments.
4
Multiscale experimental programmes are cur-
rently in place, which are providing high-quality
multiscale data on the impacts of land use man-
agement changes (including mitigation measures)
on runoff generation and flooding.
5
A broad holisticmodelling framework is needed
that encompasses the climatic and social drivers,
the prediction of impacts and the integrated
assessment of response measures based on
economic, social and environmental criteria. The
combination of DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State-
Impacts-Responses) analysis with broad-scale
modelling (BSM) provides such a framework, but
its development must be supported by a suitable
research programme. A programme being fol-
lowed in the UK has been described, which
includes an integrated programme of multiscale
field monitoring/experimentation and modelling,
including an analysis of uncertainty.
6
The modelling and prediction of impacts using
catchment models is fraught with a number of
major difficulties that inhibit the prescription of
a straightforward modelling approach; these
difficulties are being addressed within a current
FREE/FRMRC2 research programme. Model users
should be aware of the (serious) limitations of the
current models.
7
The preferred framework for predicting impacts
involves linking metamodels of local-scale
changes to a fine-resolution network routingmod-
el for propagating impacts to larger scales.
8
New techniques for Source-Pathway-Receptor
(SPR) modelling and the construction of vulnera-
bilitymaps, for use inDPSIR analysis of potential/
proposed interventions, are being developed based
on information tracking and adjoint modelling
concepts (the vulnerability maps show in detail
the link between small-scale interventions and
large-scale downstream impact).
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