High Detailed Lava Flows Hazard Maps by a Cellular Automata Approach - Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Application - page 92

being SCIARA a deterministic model, as all the previously proposed solutions refer to
probabilistic CA simulation models. This code has been used to simulate the 2001 and
2006 lava flows at Mt Etna (Italy) obtaining a high degree of overlapping between the
real and the simulated event and a perfect fitting in terms of run-out were obtained.
A novelty of the presented methodology, besides the possibility of assessing the effi-
ciency of protective measures for inhabited areas and/or major infrastructures, is that the
simulation data permits to produce general susceptibility maps in unprecedented detail,
and contains each single scenario out of a total of over thousands of simulated cases. It
is therefore no longer necessary to wait for the next eruption and know its eruptive pa-
rameters and location in order to run ad-hoc simulations, as has been the practice until
now. Instead, virtually all possible eruption scenarios can be simulated a priori, from as
dense a network of hypothetical vent locations as possible, and extracted in real time
as soon as the need arises, as in the case of an imminent or incipient eruptions. Since
the obtained results are strongly related to the morphology of the study area, each new
eruption will require the creation of an updated DEM incorporating the morphostruc-
tural changes induced by the eruption (e.g. [38]). However, re-simulation would be
necessary only for those events affecting the modified area, and a new, updated hazard
map can then be obtained by simply reprocessing the new set of simulations, which is
a quite rapid procedure even on sequential computers. In general, the overall approach
presented here can be applied to other volcanoes where a risk of lava flow inundation
exists.
Acknowledgements. Authors thank Dr. B. Behncke and Dr. M. Neri from the INGV -
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia of Catania (Sicily, Italy), who provided
topographic maps and the volcanological data. The authors are also grateful to
Prof. G.M. Crisci and Prof. S. Di Gregorio for their precious comments and the common
researches.
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