Tourism, Development and International Studies - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 402

tourism-related examples in different locations around the world can be uti-
lised to better understand the mobility of tourists and the tourism develop-
ment process in the context of global issues.
Global Issues and Risks
Smil (2008) warns against perils of predicating the future with respect
to global prospects. Citing numerous examples, ranging from population to
the environment, he states that 'the principal reason that even the cleverest
and most elaborate scenarios are ultimately so disappointing is that they may
get some future realities approximately right, but they will inevitably miss
other components whose dynamic interaction will create profoundly altered
wholes' (Smil, 2008: 3). Rather, he argues for the need to focus on under-
standing change, learning from the past, utilising a broad spectrum of knowl-
edge while identifying major factors that will shape the global future and
evaluating their probabilities and potential impacts. He states that funda-
mental shifts in human affairs come in two guises, one as low-probity events
that can in an instant 'change everything' and the other as persistent, gradu-
ally unfolding trends which can have no less far reaching impacts over the
long term. Catastrophic events include volcanic eruptions, terrorist attacks,
wars and viral pandemics, while longer-term trends of global importance
include key resource, economic, demographic, political, strategic and social
shifts (Smil, 2008). In 2010, the closure of airspace across parts of Europe
following the volcanic explosion in Iceland and the 2011 Great East earth-
quake in Japan and resulting tsunami and nuclear disaster illustrate the dev-
astating effects of catastrophic events not only on the given location but also
for tourism. The ongoing financial instability within the European Union
(EU) has caused longer-term issues for financial markets whilst austerity
measures implemented by governments have led to popular protests influ-
encing the tourism industry. Whether the events are catastrophic or longer-
term trends, these global affairs and risks will have significant implications
for tourism and its potential to have a role in the development process.
Others have put forward solutions to some of the complex problems
facing the planet. For example, Lomborg (2007) compiled an edited volume
entitled Solutions for the World's Biggest Problems , addressing 23 of world's big-
gest problems in the areas of environment, governance, economics and health
and population.
The World Economic Forum (2013a) publishes an annual global risks
report based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, academia and
civil society who are asked to review 50 global risks in the following catego-
ries: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological (see
Figure 14.1), and to indicate the likelihood that the risk will manifest over
the next 10 years and the extent of the impact of the risk.