Tourism, Climate Change and Development - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 344

Table 11.4 Anticipated growth rates in tourism and transport, various organisations

Organisation Expected growth rates

UNWTO, UNEP and WMO (2008) Emissions of CO 2 will grow by 135% over 30

years, from 1304 Mt CO 2 in 2005 to 3059 Mt
CO 2 in 2035.

UNWTO (2011e, 2012) Growth in international tourist arrivals 2010-2030

of 3.3% per year (central projection).

World Economic Forum (2009) Tourism-related CO 2 emissions (excluding aviation)

will grow at 2.5% per year until 2035, and
aviation emissions at 2.7%, with total estimated
emissions of 3164 Mt CO 2 by 2035 (plus 143%).

Airbus (2012) Growth in revenue passenger kilometres by 150%

between 2011 and 2031 (averaging 4.7% per
year); with the global fl eet of passenger aircraft
growing from 15,560 to 32,550 in the same
period.

Boeing (2012) Growth in global aircraft fl eet from 19,890 in 2011

to 39,780 by 2031; Airline traffi c in revenue
passenger kilometres: 5% per year.

IEA (2009) Air travel almost quadruples between 2005 and 2050

with an average worldwide growth rate of 3.5%
per year, but over 4% worldwide until 2025.

International Maritime
Organization (2009)

Absolute emissions from shipping will grow by
1.9-2.7% per year up to 2050.

Although international tourism provides for only 16% of tourism trips,
it accounts for 44% of emissions (Scott et al. , 2008). Even if the per capita per
trip contribution of tourists to GHG emissions continues to fall at the his-
toric rate of greater efficiencies from technological, governance and manage-
ment innovations, the absolute contribution will continue to grow as a result
of increasing tourism mobility (Gössling et al. , 2010; Hall, 2010b, 2011).
Growth in emissions from tourism, and aviation in particular, is therefore
clearly in conflict with attempts to reduce GHG emissions.
There is currently no agreed global framework for emission reductions,
although voluntary post-Kyoto emission reduction pledges have been made
by individual countries (Jotzo, 2010). International aviation is not included
in the Kyoto Protocol and has not been an explicit topic of post-Kyoto
emission reduction negotiations. Under Kyoto, bunker fuels for international
aviation and shipping are separated from national emission inventories.
Emissions from international aviation are currently not accounted for by any
nation. Although the Kyoto Protocol states that the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) is responsible for limiting and reducing