Tourism, Climate Change and Development - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 343

In the longer term, the direct impacts of substantially changed climate
regimes and the indirect effects of climate-induced environmental change
and societal impacts (i.e. reduced economic growth, increased food and
water insecurity; biodiversity loss and/or political destabilisation) will also
significantly affect tourism in some regions as a result of damage to, or the
complete loss of, key tourism resources that will alter the competitiveness of
destinations (Scott et al. , 2008, 2012b). These effects need to be considered
through the various components of the tourism system (Figure 11.2) as well
as the capacities of tourists to perceive impacts accurately (Gössling & Hall,
2006b; Gössling et al. , 2012; Scott et al. , 2008, 2012b). However, such con-
cerns are not usually configured in tourism and development policies.
Climate Policy Implications for Tourism Patterns
Transport, aviation and climate change
Tourism transport, accommodation and activities combined were esti-
mated by a UNWTO commissioned study to account for approximately 5%
of global anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 in 2005 (Scott et al. , 2008). Most
CO 2 emissions are associated with transport, with aviation accounting for
40% of tourism's overall carbon footprint, followed by cars (32%) and accom-
modation (21%). Cruise ships account for around 1.5% of global tourism
emissions (19.17 Mt CO 2 ) (Eijgelaar et al. , 2010). This assessment does not
include the impact of short-lived GHGs. A more accurate assessment of tour-
ism's contribution to global warming can be made on the basis of radiative
forcing. Scott et al. (2010) estimate that tourism contributed to 5.2-12.5% of
all anthropogenic forcing in 2005, with a best estimate of about 8%.
Given expected rates of tourism growth (see above), the contribution of
emissions from tourism is expected to grow substantially in both absolute
and proportional terms, if other economic sectors are able to achieve their
legislated or voluntary emission reduction targets. Based on a business-as-
usual (BAU) scenario for 2035, which considers changes in travel frequency,
length of stay, travel distance and technological efficiency gains, Scott et al.
(2008) suggest that CO 2 emissions from tourism will grow by about 135%
to 2035 (compared with 2005), totalling approximately 3059 Mt (Table 11.4).
Most of this growth will be associated with air travel, which transported
51% of international visitors in 2011 (UNWTO, 2012). These estimates are
similar to WEF (2009) estimates and are consistent with Airbus (2012) and
Boeing (2012) projections that the aviation global fleet will double between
2011 and 2031 with a 4.9% per year growth in passenger numbers. The IEA
(2009) baseline scenario in which air travel almost quadruples between 2005
and 2050 represents a tripling of energy used for aviation, accounting for 19%
of all transport energy used as compared to 11% in 2006 (IEA, 2009).