Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter I
I
NTRODUCTION
A.
C
URRENT
S
TATUS OF
E
NERGY AND
M
ATERIALS
F
EEDSTOCKS
1. The Petroleum Resource
Resource shortages are a natural consequence of the utility of the resource combined with
human ingenuity. As a new resource is discovered, people invent uses for it in proportion to
its adaptability; increased uses typically increase the demand for it often resulting in increased
production, which thereby increases the opportunity for new uses to be discovered, and so on.
In the case of petroleum, this cycle has progressed to such an extent that developed world
economies are dependent on it for heat, food (through agriculture), shelter (through synthesis
of construction materials), and transportation.
In the United States, for example, petroleum use has increased steadily from
approximately 9.8 million barrels per day in 1960 to ~21 million barrels per day in 2005 [1].
The present rate of demand increase is ~1 .5 percent per year resulting in U.S. demand
expected to increase 37 percent over 2004 levels by 2025 [2]. Within this demand,
transportation and industry, the latter including plastics and materials production, consume
the greatest shares at ~66 percent and ~25 percent, respectively. Comparable increases have
been observed in other developed countries as well [3, 4].
If petroleum were plentiful, widely distributed, and environmentally benign, this situation
would be no cause for concern. Unfortunately, though, it is not the case.
First, the demand of the developed economies for petroleum is now reaching a level that
is comparable to known reserve limits. For example, an estimated 875 billion barrels of oil
have been consumed since the dawn of the oil age [5], while 1.7 trillion barrels remain in
proven reserves (within oil fields discovered but not yet pumped out), and another estimated
900 billion remain to be discovered [6]. Of the 875 billion consumed, however, greater than
60 percent (550 billion) have been consumed since 1975. With world demand continuing to
rise at ~2 percent per year, the world production peak is estimated to occur between 2026 and
2047 [5]. Within the United States, crude oil production is expected to peak in 2010 [2], and
the remainder of the petroleum that is easily accessible given both geological and political
constraints is expected to peak in that approximate time frame as well [6].
This raises the second issue, that of petroleum accessibility, given both geological and
political constraints. Geological factors dictate that not all petroleum is equally accessible.
