Tedious Calculations of Extraordinary Interest - Four Revolutions in the Earth Sciences - page 208

By the time Worlds in the Making appeared in 1908, scientific opinion had already
turned against Arrhenius's theory. Fifty years would pass before scientists would
begin to investigate greenhouse warming seriously. Another fifty would elapse be-
fore an international panel of scientists would corroborate Arrhenius's finding. A
century is a long time to wait to affirm a scientific theory, especially one with the
dire consequences of global warming.
At first, things looked up for Arrhenius. T. C. Chamberlin, the influential Amer-
ican geologist whom we met in part 1 , welcomed the CO 2 theory. That turned out
to be no surprise, for he said he had thought of the idea himself. 14 Climate change
had long been chief among Chamberlin's many geological interests. “Born on a
moraine,” as he described his origin, he began his career mapping the glacial geo-
logyofhishomestateofWisconsin.ChamberlinwasthefirsttoshowthatinNorth
America, huge continental ice sheets had bulldozed their way south, then retreated,
not once but several times. 15 For one scientist to labor in the wilds of Wiscon-
sin, uncovering evidence of glacial advances and retreats, then go on to invent an
important theory of cosmology—the planetesimal theory that he developed with
Forest Ray Moulton—shows a rare breadth of interest and ability.
In a long, multipart paper in 1899, Chamberlin praised “Dr. Arrhenius, who has
takenagreatstepinadvanceofhispredecessorsinreducinghisconclusionstodef-
inite quantitative terms deduced from observational data.” Arrhenius's“great labor
place[s] his contributions on a much higher plane than the general suggestions of
those who had preceded him.” Chamberlin added: “It is one thing to point out a
theoretical causa vera , and quite another thing to give good reasons for believing
that it is quantitatively sufficient, and to open lines of inquiry for demonstrating
that it is so. This Dr. Arrhenius has done and apparently with great success.” 16 Ar-
rhenius could hardly have hoped for higher praise.