Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Confirmation bias is a tendency for people to treat data selectively and favor
information that confirms their beliefs. This can lead to illusions of invulnerability and
belief in the inherent morality of the group leading to self-censorship, illusions of
unanimity and an incomplete consideration ofalternative solutions to the issue at hand. All
of these characteristics can be applied to both the mainstream climate science community
and also global warming sceptics. Indeed both groups are convinced of the inherent moral
good in their cause and approach to the issue of global warming. But the community at
large might be seen as losing interest in the posturing from both camps. Of perhaps more
interest than the magnitude of recent increases in temperatures or not, might be a good
medium-term weather forecast.
There are natural climate cycles as described by Carter in his topic
Climate: The
Counter Consensus
.Theycycleshaveanextraterrestrialoriginandprovideaphysicalbasis
for the long-range weather forecasts sold by Ring and D'Aleo. There is a potential role
for ANNs in elucidating these relationships and describing them mathematically. Indeed
artificial intelligence has the capacity to underpin a new theory of climate in the same way
thatGCMscurrentlyunderpinAGW.ANNs,ifrunonsupercomputers, couldrevolutionise
our capacity to unravel and understand natural climate cycles. Obviously this has direct
application for better weather and climate forecasting with immense utility for humanity.
The reality is that those who would like to see AGW theory discarded should increase
theirexpectationsofclimatescienceratherthan,asmanydo,supportthemyththatweather
andclimateareessentiallychaoticandthereforeunpredictable.Thereallong-termsolution
is philanthropic funding of alternative research programs, funding that backs diversity
and competition. The Enlightenment happened because brave men went in search of
knowledge. They sought to understand the natural world, not to save it. What climate
science needs right now are new tools to replace the failed GCMs, and a new unifying
theory of climate to replace the failed theory of anthropogenic global warming.
