Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
atmospheric processes on earth as an array of thousands of numbers while averaging
spatiotemporal variations from outer space, even variations in solar radiation. By the
mid-1970s computing power was catching up with the ambition of these scientists to
simulate earth's climate and by the 1980s there was a growing confidence in the models
and, in particular, their ability to forecast the impact of increasing levels of atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO
2
) on climate.
The focus now is on the interpretation of output from general circulation models
(GCMs). This is what concerns mainstream meteorologists, with key drivers of climate
change thought to relate to human activity. Indeed, the idea that the moon influences the
weather through its gravitational effect is generally scoffed at. While meteorology has
moved away from a deep knowledge of astronomy, there is no evidence to suggest that
the skill of the discipline at weather and climate forecasting, particularly at medium and
long-range rainfall forecasting, has improved. There is considerable evidence to suggest it
is in decline, despite ever-increasing investments in supercomputers and media releases,
not to mention high profile collaborations through the United Nations.
Professor Chris Turney is a modern climate scientist who set off on an expedition to
the Antarctic in 2013 believing the GCMs that have been forecasting melting polar ice for
sometime.TurneysubsequentlyattractedworldwideattentionwhenonChristmasEve,the
Russianflaggedshiphehiredgotstuckinseaice.If,beforesettingout,hehadconsultedthe
long-range weather forecasters who operate independently of the established institutions,
and without the aid of GCMs but with reference to patterns and phase changes associated
withsolarandlunarphenomena,hecouldhavebeenforewarnedoftheunusuallyslowmelt
rate of Antarctic ice last austral summer. For example, Kevin Long is a long-range weather
forecaster based in Bendigo, Victoria. When he issued his seasonal forecast at the end of
August 2013, it stated that the higher sea ice averages will become one of the dominant
drivers of eastern Australia's developing mega-drought cycles as higher sea ice periods go
hand-in-hand with below average rainfall and heavier late season frosts. But who listens
to Long and other long range weather forecasters, including Ken Ring in New Zealand
and Joseph D'Aleo in the United States, who operate independently of the established
institutions?
While Australian taxpayers invested upward of 30 million dollars in just one
supercomputer in March 2009 on the basis that this would make weather predictions more
accurate, Long, without any government support, is arguably producing more reliable
medium-term rainfall forecasts. For example, on 28 August 2013 the Bureau issued its
national rainfall outlook for the austral spring of 2013 indicating that it would be wetter
than average for most of the Murray Darling Basin and especially central Victoria.
Managers of major water infrastructure prepared for possible flooding. Long also issued a
forecast on 28 August 2013, but his had a dramatically different outlook. Long forecasted
below-average rainfall for central Victoria, above-average temperatures and with
