Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
have demonstrated a likelihood of positive responses in empirical studies. Any
projected adverse impacts of rising temperatures or declining seawater and
freshwater pH levels ('acidification') will be largely mitigated through phenotypic
adaptation or evolution during the many decades to centuries it is expected to take
for pH levels to fall.
• A modest warming of the planet will result in a net reduction of human mortality
from temperature-related events. More lives are saved by global warming via the
amelioration of cold-related deaths than those lost under excessive heat. Global
warming will have a negligible influence on human morbidity and the spread of
infectious diseases, phenomena observed in virtually all parts of the world.
Thoughtful analysis of the IPCC and NIPCC summaries of the scientific literature
(Tables 2, 3) reveals (i) a lack of empirical evidence for human-caused global warming,
(ii) that the temperature fluctuations that occurred in the twentieth century fell well within
previous natural bounds, and reinforces the fact (iii) that IPCC's advice about future
dangerous warming is entirely predicated upon the accuracy of their speculative computer
models. In addition to which, the four contextual tests outlined in the earlier part of this
essay also provide strong evidence against alarm.
Some will say, nonetheless, that given that the science lacks certainty (whatever that
might mean) we should give Earth the 'benefit of the doubt', by which they mean taking
precautionary action against human-related CO
2
emissions, just in case they should cause
dangerous warming. However, this catchy phrase reveals a profound misunderstanding
of the real climatic risks faced by our societies, because it assumes that global warming
is more dangerous, or more to be feared, than is the equally likely occurrence of global
cooling; in reality, the converse is more likely to be true.
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It needs to be recognised that the theoretical hazard of dangerous human-caused
warmingisbutonesmallpartofamuchwiderclimatehazardthatallscientistsagreeupon,
which is the dangerous weather and climatic events that Nature intermittently presents us
with—and always will. It is clear from the many and continuing climate-related disasters
that occur around the world that the governments of even advanced, wealthy countries
are often inadequately prepared for such disasters. We need to do better, and squandering
money to give Earth the benefit of the doubt based upon an unjustifiable assumption that
dangerous warming will shortly resume is exactly the wrong type of 'picking winners'
approach.
Many scientists, including leading solar physicists, currently argue that solar cycling
impliesthatthemostlikelyclimatictrendoverthenextseveraldecadesisoneofsignificant
cooling rather than warming. Meanwhile, the IPCC's computer modellers assure us with
