Why climate models are failing - Climate Change: The Facts - page 16

Where they are not shaded, the observed trends are within the 95 per cent confidence
limits of the model ensemble. Where they are light grey, the observed trends are below
the fifth percentile of the ensemble, and where they are black, they are below the 2.5 th
percentile.
The results
The results are completely shattering for the ensemble behavior of the 108 model runs.
Several items are worthy of note:
• Every observed trend, from 1951-2013 to 2004-2013 falls below the model
average.
• The observed trend initially falls below the fifth percentile trend 37 years ago, or
in 1977, and remains there for every trend length through the end of the record.
• The observed trend initially falls below the 2.5 th percentile trend 34 years ago, or
1980.
• Since 1980, there are only four trends between the 2.5 th and fifth percentiles.
If policies were based upon climate science rather than climate studies, this simple,
straightforwardanalysiswouldspelltheendofanyonerousclimatepolicy.However,while
our similar studies can be scientifically cited, 7 to date, there has been an understandable
reluctancetopublishthisinthetier-1scientificliterature,suchas Nature or Science ,asthat
wouldindicateamassive,unexplainable,andpersistentfailureofthestudiesdrivingglobal
climate policy.
Paltridge recently speculated that when this is ultimately permitted, the cost to all
science (not just climate science) is going to be dear and lasting, much to the detriment
of our society and our public policies. 8 It will provoke serious doubt that the present
incentive structure in science—which requires that the practitioners keep their problems
'important'—has far-reaching and disastrous unintended consequences.
Kuhn attempted to explain the reluctance of a scientific community to abandon a
failing paradigm as a function of the profession, in which the vast majority of practitioners
advance professionally by trying to explain minutiae or anomalies within the paradigm. 9
Therefore:
In science … novelty emerges only with difficulty, manifested by resistance, against a background provided by
expectation.Initially,onlytheanticipated andusualareexperiencedevenundercircumstances wheretheanomalyislater
to be observed. 10