Why climate models are failing - Climate Change: The Facts - page 13

2 Why climate models are failing
Patrick J. Michaels
Onerous and ineffective policies related to greenhouse gas emissions— such as
cap-and-trade schemes, taxes on extraction, or carbon taxes— have themselves extracted a
veryhighpoliticalcostinAustralia.ThreenationalleadersinAustralia—MalcolmTurnbull,
KevinRudd,andJuliaGillard—wereallremoved,eitherbytheirownpartyorbythevoters,
because of failed climate change policies. Environmental policies are also critical issues in
state elections, where only one state premier remains from the Labor Party.
IntheUnitedStates,63DemocraticPartyseatswerelostintheHouseofRepresentatives
in the 2010 election. Almost every close race was lost by a member who voted for
cap-and-trade. In the Senate, which did not pass or even bring up similar legislation, every
close race went to the Democratic candidate. Given that both Houses had voted for the
President's unpopular health care nationalisation, the blame for the loss in the House of
Representatives lies squarely with cap-and-trade.
In Canada, a newly-elected and popular government has basically shut down any
significant global warming policies.
Despite all of this, which is surely known to the political class, the current Australian
national government seems committed to yet another round of global warming-related
policy.
This chapter will demonstrate that such a dangerous political course is simply no longer
justified by climate science (indeed, if it ever was). It is hoped that those considering new
policies may be moved by its contents.
Scientific introduction
In its most basic form, science consists of statements of hypotheses that are retained by
critical tests against observations. Without such testing, or without a testable hypothesis,
Karl Popper stated that what may be called 'science' is, in fact, 'pseudo-science.' 1 A
corollary is that a theory which purports to explain everything in its universe of subject
matter is, in fact, untestable and therefore is pseudo-science. In climate, perhaps it is
charitable to refer to untested (or untestable) climate model projections as 'climate studies'
rather than 'climate science.'
The popular literature is replete with stories relating all kinds of mayhem to climate
changes induced by increasing the infrared absorption of the lower atmosphere, known
colloquially (and erroneously) as the 'greenhouse effect'. The chain of causation usually