Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Analysisoftrendsandofaggregatedtimeseriesonclimatic(30-year)scaledoesnotindicateconsistenttrendsworldwide.
Despite common perception, in general, the detected trends are more negative (less intense floods in most recent years)
than positive. Similarly, Svensson et al. (2005) and Di Baldassarre et al. (2010) did not find systematical change neither
in flood increasing or decreasing numbers nor change in flood magnitudes in their analysis.
7
Note the emphasised phrase 'Despite common perception'. That 'common perception' is
central to the theme of 'extreme weather is getting worse' which was started by John P.
Holdren in his 2007 paper on 'global climate disruption'.
Like Holdren, many people who ascribe to doomsday scenarios related to
anthropogenic global warming seem to think that extreme weather is happening more
frequently. Most people are not educated in the history of television technology, web
technology, and mass media, and without that background, it is easy to miss the central
lesson about why the false perception exists of an increase in extreme weather today.
Weather appears more extreme today, not because it is, but because we hear about
it nearly instantly, and such reports saturate the electronic media within minutes of
occurrence.
Compare the reach and speed of communications and news reporting at the beginning
of this timeline to the reach and speed of communications and news reporting technology
around the beginning of the tweniteth century. Then compare that to the beginning of the
twenty-first century. Compare again to what we've seen in the last ten years.
With such global coverage, instant messaging, and internet enabled phones with
camerasnow,isitanywonderthatnothingrelatedtosevereweatherordisasterescapesour
notice any more? Certainly, without considering the technological change in our society, it
would seem as if severe weather events and disasters are becoming much more frequent.
ToborrowandmodifyafamousphrasefromJamesCarville:it'sthetechnology,stupid.
All of these advances in communication speak to the phrase, 'despite common
perception,' which was highlighted at the beginning of this section. The speed of weather
tracking and the communications technology curve aids in our 'common perception' of
extreme weather events, but the reality of extreme weather frequency though, is actually
quite different. While we may see more extreme weather on a daily, monthly, and yearly
basis, that happens only because there are millions more eyes, ears, cameras and networks
than ever before.
Extreme weather was always there, but up until recently in human history there was no
waytorecorditandshareitquickly.Nowalmost anyonewithacamera enabled cell phone
can report on extreme weather from nearly anywhere on the globe and have it in the hands
of television networks and internet news sites within minutes of occurrence.
