Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
1 The science and politics of climate change
Ian Plimer
We derive scientific evidence from measurement, observation, and experiment. Evidence
must be repeatable and collected over and over again. Computers do not generate evidence:
they analyse evidence that should have been repeated and validated. On the basis of the
evidence and analysis of evidence, an explanation is given. This explanation is a scientific
theory and must be in accord with other validated evidence from diverse sources (this
is known as the coherence criterion in science). Unlike in law, there is no inadmissible
evidence in science. Science is underpinned by practitioners who must be sceptical of the
methodology used to collect evidence, the analysis of evidence, and the conclusions based
ontheevidence.Onthebasisofnewevidence,scientistsmustalwaysbepreparedtochange
their opinions.
Science bows to no authority, is not based on a consensus, and is in a constant state of
flux.Nogreatadvanceinsciencehasbeenmadebyconsensus:advanceshavebeenmadeby
individualspaddlingupstream.Ifascientifictheoryisnotinaccordwithvalidatedevidence,
thenthetheorymustbeabandonedandreconstructed.Itisscepticismthatunderpinsscience,
not the comfort of consensus.
The theory of human-induced global warming is not science because research is based
on a pre-ordained conclusion, huge bodies of evidence are ignored, and the analytical
procedures are treated as evidence. Furthermore, climate 'science' is sustained by
government research grants. Funds are not available to investigate theories that are not in
accord with government ideology.
Many Western governments have a politically popular ideology that argues that:
i. There is an increase in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO
2
) by human activities;
ii. The increased CO
2
, a greenhouse gas, will lead to ever increasing global warming;
iii. There will be tipping points, sea level rises, extinctions and ocean acidification;
iv. Climate change will be irreversible and that human emissions of CO
2
must be
reduced or stopped as soon as possible; and
v. In order to stop climate change, energy sources need to be shifted from coal, gas and oil to
wind, solar, tidal and biomass.
