Environmental Engineering Reference
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20
15
Chronic obstructive
lung disease
Pneumonia
10
10
0
5
−10
0
0
15
30
45
60
0
15
30
45
60
Window size (days)
Window size (days)
5
6
Ischemic heart
disease
All cause
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
15
30
45
60
0
15
30
45
60
Window size (days)
Window size (days)
FIGURE 23.31
Percentage increase in class-speciic mortality per 10 μg/m
3
increase in PM
2.5
in Boston,
MA, for different smoothing windows of air PM
2.5
. The igure shows increased percentage changes with lon-
ger PM
2.5
averaging times. Chronic obstructive lung disease shows some evidence of mortality displacement,
with the percent change in death falling below 0 at a 60-day cycle length (see Figure 23.30). Pneumonia shows
a trend to short-term harvesting, but larger effects with longer averaging times. Ischemic heart disease shows
no change with the 15-day window and increasing percentage changes with progressively longer averaging
times. (Adapted from Schwartz, J.,
Am. J. Epidemiol
., 151, 440, 2000.)
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
−0.1
−0.1
−0.2
−0.2
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
Day
Day
FIGURE 23.32
Shape of the association between PM
10
and daily deaths fourth-degree distributed lag
model (left panel) and a cubic-degree distributed lag model (right panel) in 10 cities of the APHEA-2 project,
1990-1997. Both it with a random effect for city. In neither case is there strong evidence for mortality dis-
placement (see Figure 23.30), since deaths fall to near 0 but then rise to a second peak of longer duration than
the irst peak. (Adapted from Zanobetti, A. et al.,
Epidemiology
, 13, 87, 2002.)
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