Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
the technology already contributes to
considerable global production increases.
During the past 10 years, global food
prices have shown an increasing trend,
because growth in demand has outpaced
growth in supply. Especially during the food
crisis in 2008, when prices rose sharply over
a short period of time, the number of
undernourished people in developing
countries increased by over 100 million
(FAO, 2009). Poor people often spend a
substantial portion of their income on food.
Hence, there is little buf er to make up for
rising prices. Sexton and Zilberman (2012)
used their cross-country regression results
and a global multi-market equilibrium
model to predict how food prices would have
looked in 2008 without GM crops. As can be
seen in Fig. 14.2, without GM crop adoption,
prices for important commodities would
have been 30-40% higher. h is is plausible
given that 81% of all soybeans worldwide,
35% of all maize and 30% of all rapeseed are
already genetically modii ed (James, 2012).
Figure 14.2 also shows the price ef ects for
wheat, even though GM wheat is not yet
commercialized anywhere in the world. h is
ef ect is due to market spillovers. As wheat
competes with maize and other crops in
production and consumption, price
developments are correlated across markets.
h e global demand for food, feed and
bioenergy is likely to double by 2050
(Godfray
et al
., 2010). But land, water, fuel
and other resources needed for agricultural
production are becoming increasingly scarce
(see Chapter 1). Moreover, climate change
may af ect food production negatively
(Whitford
et al
., 2010; World Bank, 2010).
Against this background, many predict that
food prices will rise further in the future,
unless new technologies are being developed
and implemented that can boost productivity
in a sustainable way. GM crops could play an
important role in this connection, provided
that the technological potentials are
harnessed for many crops and traits other
than those that have been commercialized
so far.
GM Crops
agronomic traits
As discussed above, most of the GM crops
commercialized so far involve herbicide
tolerance or Bt insect resistance. So far, Bt is
used mainly in maize and cotton. Yet, there
are also other Bt crops that are soon likely to
be commercialized (Romeis
et al
., 2008).
Especially, Bt rice and Bt aubergine have
been i eld tested extensively in China and
India. Data from these trials are in line with
results for Bt maize and Bt cotton (see
Chapter 13). h at is, insecticide-reducing
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Maize
Soybean
Rapeseed
Wheat
Fig. 14.2.
World market prices would be much higher without GM crop adoption. From own presentation
based on Sexton and Zilberman, 2012).
