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the models themselves that is of concern here - rather, it is their function as a marker of
contemporaneous thinking (about tourism).
'Structuralist' and 'post-structuralist' approaches to modelling
destination development
Models devised and deployed by tourism researchers may be mathematical (i.e. a set of
interrelated equations) or graphical (Smith, 2010b). Typically, they isolate a given cause-
effect relationship from other variables, so that we may better understand it. This is certainly
true of the Tourist Area Life Cycle (TALC), which posits a relationship between time (the
independent variable) and the number of visitors staying in a destination (the dependent
variable). It suggests that the latter will increase over many years, slowly at fi rst and then
more rapidly, before levelling off and then in all likelihood declining. Many readers will, no
doubt, be familiar with the diagram and, specifi cally, the 'S' shaped (or asymptotic) curve
used to illustrate the above (so much so that there is little point reproducing it here). This
identifi es a sequence of stages that all destinations will pass through. In the
discovery stage
, the
fl edgling destination's unspoilt qualities attract the fi rst tourists, who are few in number
and adventurous or independent in nature. Little or no tourist infrastructure exists at this
point in time. Soon, resident entrepreneurs begin to address the lack of facilities for tourists
and to promote their services to outsiders. Access to the destination is improved (e.g. new
road and rail links), and a clearly defi ned recreational business district emerges where the
majority of accommodations and entertainments are situated. Following the
involvement stage
,
more and more visitors are attracted to the destination, to the point where they outnumber
residents during the high season. The
development stage
, as it is known, sees external investors
such as (inter)national hotel chains, transport companies and tour operators taking a larger
stake in the destination. Eventually, the rate of growth slows down, by which time signs of
deterioration may be discerned in the built environment due to the volume and intensity of
use and, more often than not, a failure to reinvest profi ts in maintaining a quality product and
keeping up with changing tastes. This indicates that the destination has reached the
consolida-
tion stage
. Thereafter, visitor numbers stop growing as the destination's carrying capacity
is exceeded, with negative environmental and social consequences. Occupancy rates fall, as
do bookings from fi rst-time visitors, resulting in a high turnover of tourism businesses.
Unfashionable and uncompetitive, the destination now fi nds itself in the
stagnation stage
. After
that, a variety of outcomes are possible depending on the success of any action designed to
offset a reduction in arrivals brought on by competition and resource depletion. The most
likely outcome is the
decline stage
, where arrivals (and, by defi nition, expenditures) fall to
historically low levels, and premises lie empty or are converted to other uses. More optimisti-
cally, the
rejuvenation stage
sees a resumption of the previous upward trend in arrivals, thanks
to a range of well-received product development and marketing initiatives (e.g. new attrac-
tions, rebranding).
The TALC has been hailed as 'a brilliant example of how scientifi c progress could and
should work . . . [as] probably the only model in tourism that has been scrutinised in many
different contexts with modifi cations suggested to fi t specifi c situations and circumstances'
(Oppermann, 1998: 180). It has also come in for a great deal of criticism, so much so that
Leiper (2004: 135) asserts that it 'should now be assigned to the archives of history - as a
former theory, now discredited, shown to be false'. Such polemic rarely gets us anywhere, and
it is better to see the TALC for what it is - a (hi)story of the development of destinations that
serves as a warning not to overlook long-term sustainability in the pursuit of the 'tourist
