Biomedical Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Therefore,
2
0
e
−
2
0!
P (
0
)
=
)
=
e
−
2
1
P
(
0
)
=
0.1353
P (
0
Using Poisson, we calculate the probability
P
of having no sterility failures
for a site that averages 2 per year to be 0.135, or a 13.5% chance. If we wish to
find out the likelihood of exceeding the average of 2 failures per year, we would
calculate the probability as such:
P (X>
2
)
=
1
−
[
P (
0
)
+
P (
1
)
+
P (
2
)
where, from the above-mentioned
P(
0
)
=
0.1353
and
2
1
e
−
2
1!
e
−
2
1
2
P
(
1
)
=
=
P
(
1
)
=
=
0.2707
and
2
2
e
−
2
2!
e
−
2
2
e
−
2
2
4
2
P
(
)
=
=
P
(
)
=
=
P
(
)
=
2
2
2
0.2707
Therefore,
P (X>
2
)
=
1
−
[0.1353
+
0.2707
+
0.2707
=
0.3233]
So, the probability for the manufacturing site that averages 2 sterility failures per
year to experience greater than 2 failures in the upcoming year would be 0.323
or 32.3%.
4.10 COINCIDENCES
A coincidence is the occurrence of two events that happen at the same time by
random chance, but give the appearance of a connection or a cause-and-effect
relationship.
“Given the billions of people and the quadrillions of characteristics, it would
be incredible if incredible things didn't happen”
—Anonymous
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