Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
fourteen
What the Past Tells Us about Tomorrow
If future generations are to remember us with gratitude rather
than contempt, we must leave them more than the miracles of
technology. We must leave them a glimpse of the world as it was
in the beginning, not just at er we got through with it.
President Lyndon B. Johnson
(said while signing the Wilderness Act, 1964)
As shown throughout this topic, the American West faces a
climatic future that is predicted to become generally warmer and drier, with
deeper droughts interspersed with larger and more frequent l oods. Scientists
believe these shit s may have already begun, since the region is experienc-
ing more extreme weather. Only time will tell, but greenhouse gas-induced
warming may be at the root.
Reducing the uncertainty of future climate predictions requires an in-
depth understanding of the natural patterns and range of climate, includ-
ing the l uctuations of conditions experienced over the millennia prior to
human-caused greenhouse warming. As discussed in the preceding chapters,
a substantial body of research shows that the so-called “normal” range of past
climate is enormously broad. Records of long-term climate underscore that,
over the past 150 years, nature has dealt the western United States a relatively
benign hand. If the decade- to century-long climate extremes written about
in this topic should revisit the region, modern society will be forced to make
dramatic changes in the way we live.
Over the past century, society in the West has followed an unsustainable
pattern of water use, leaving us more vulnerable each year as we head into a
climatic future we cannot control. h e exploding population in the region
has been made possible through extensive water development, with dams and
aqueducts controlling the distribution of water and buf ering the dry years.
Nevertheless, we cannot stop droughts from happening. h e West is drying,
even though water continues to be delivered to our faucets. Key questions
probably keep regional water managers awake at night, among them: How
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