Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
effective if it partners with a robust civil society. with a well-developed pandemic
preparedness plan, a consolidated democracy can have the potential for the best-
case scenario. the negative spiral is most intense in countries where state capacity
is already severely limited yet effective civil society engagement is not expected.
In such a situation, countries have few human, financial, and other resources from
which to draw to break the negative spiral, and the pressures on the already fragile or
weak governments can cause them to collapse. While it is difficult to predetermine
state capacity to respond and the level of civil society engagement, some countries in
southeast asia or sub-Saharan africa might well become victimised by this scenario.
the situation might be even worse in sub-Saharan africa, where governments are
fragile and burdens of HIv/aIDS are heavy. Given the similarity between the H5n1
and 1918 viruses, and the fact that both the 1918 Spanish influenza and HIv/aIDS
typically attack individuals in the prime of their economically productive lives, it
is highly likely that the spread of pandemic influenza to east africa would quickly
destroy the regional economies, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Fuelling this
death, destitution, and destruction are the discontent of excluded, disadvantaged, or
repressed groups and the greed of warlords, which could lead to a Hobbesian world
of a war of everyone against everyone.
In short, the onset of the pandemic has a strong potential to cause sociopolitical
dislocations in affected countries and set in motion a vicious cycle among disease,
social stability, and state capacity. the sociopolitical impacts nevertheless can be
mixed and may vary across countries, depending on the state capacity to respond
and the effectiveness of civil society engagement. the negative consequences can
be minimised or mitigated in countries with a strong state or a robust civil society
engagement. by contrast, the negative dynamics are very likely to lead to social
breakdown or state collapse in countries where state capacity is already severely
constrained and a robust civil society engagement is absent.
military Security and International Stability
In
Leviathan
, thomas Hobbes claimed that the central functions of the state are to
protect its citizens from both internal and external forms of predation. The presence
of a pandemic influenza will not only limit state capabilities to impose sociopolitical
order, but will also jeopardise state capabilities to fend off external aggression.
according to crosby (2003, 11), the Spanish influenza killed 'nearly as many
american soldiers as died in battle, ten times and over that number of american
civilians, and twice as many people in the world as died in combat on all fronts in
the entire four years of the war'. through the debilitation of military personnel, the
pandemic can degrade human resources and reduce force strength. Provided that
the future pandemic influenza resembles the 1918 influenza in that the adult males who
were most vulnerable were those of military age (who are also the most susceptible to
secondary complications such as pneumonia), the pandemic will also jeopardise the
pool of physically qualified candidates for the new recruits. Meanwhile, the spread
