Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
2003, the containment of SarS was followed by swift and strong economic growth
in asia, particularly china (Doven 2003). the potential of economic rebound in
the immediate aftermath of the pandemic cannot be denied, although the speed and
strength of the economic revival may depend on the duration of the pandemic
and the damage it does to the manufacturing sector (newcomb 2005).
although an influenza pandemic is described as an outbreak event and
its economic impact is likely to be mainly short term (as with SarS), its long-term
economic consequences cannot be dismissed. Unlike SarS, a pandemic can lead to
significant drop in physical capital (due to reduced investor confidence in the future
of the affected economies) and human capital (as a result of mass morbidity and
mortality). the destruction of human and physical capital will reduce an affected
economy's long-term economic growth potential. a study by Douglas almond
(2006), with the support of the national Institutes of Health and the national
Institute of aging in the U.S., suggested a broad spectrum of persistent effects of
the 1918 Spanish influenza: cohorts
in utero
during the height of the pandemic
typically displayed reduced educational attainment, lower socioeconomic status,
and increased rates of physical disability. It also found that 'persons born in states
with more severe exposure to the pandemic experienced worse outcomes than those
born in states with less severe pandemic exposures'. while there are no solid data
to examine a pandemic's long-term impact on investment, it is not hard to imagine
that if the pandemic persists in an affected country and begins to disrupt global
production lines, multinational corporations (Mncs) will be forced to reconsider
their investment strategy. The increased risk profile in doing business in an affected
country will reduce foreign investment and exports, which will eventually hurt
the manufacturing sector. nonetheless, human societies and economies can be
highly resilient in the long run. a negative shock to population growth caused by
the bubonic plague, for example, actually led to faster accumulation of capital and
subsequently faster output growth. the scarcity of labour in the century after 1350
also encouraged more technological innovation (for example, the rapid spread of
water mills and windmills in europe; see Hays 1998).
to summarise, a pandemic can cause tremendous damage to a highly
interconnected global economy. Depending on the nature of the pandemic and its
international context, the impact can vary considerably across economies, and there
can be wide variation between its immediate impact and its impact in the immediate
wake of the outbreak, as well as between its short- and long-term effects.
Sociopolitical Stability
the onset of an influenza pandemic will combine with economic instability and
other factors to create volatile social and political situations. Uncertainty about
the nature of the disease could produce significant worry, anxiety, fear, panic, and
even mass hysteria in an affected society. as suggested during the SarS outbreak,
government mishandling of an outbreak can intensify the fear and facilitate the spread
