In-Flew-Enza: Pandemic Influenza and Its Security Implications - Innovation in Global Health Governance - page 138

depend on the country's economic size and global importance. David Fidler (2005)
has suggested that countries would be more willing to restrict trade and travel
aggressively with Indonesia than with china because of the latter's sheer market
size and importance in global economy. 6 the SarS outbreak suggests that open
economies, economies that are significant exporters, and economies with a prominent
service sector are particularly vulnerable to international economic shocks (Jong-
wha lee and McKibbin 2004, 95). the connection between open economies and
short-term economic shocks is suggested in table 7-2.
by taking into account the openness of the economy and healthcare costs, bio
economic research associates developed a composite index to measure the relative
economic risk of influenza pandemic in selected countries. According to this index,
china, Hong Kong, and Singapore are the asian economies most exposed to the
risk of the pandemic, and the U.S. is the most vulnerable among five members of
the organisation for economic co-operation and Development (oecD) assessed
(Newcomb 2005, figure 4).
In emphasising the significant negative dynamics between infectious disease
outbreaks and economic prosperity, however, short-term impact during the pandemic
is often not differentiated from the impact in the immediate aftermath of the
pandemic. while in general the short-term impact is negative during the pandemic,
in the aftermath it may not be entirely negative. the Spanish influenza, for example,
did not lead to a drop in per capita income growth across the U.S. in the 1920s,
nor did it have any significant impact on acreage sown per capita in India (crosby
2003). Indeed, a study of its effects on the growth of income per capita in the U.S.
between 1919 and 1930 revealed that the states with the highest mortality rates and
highest business failure rates grew fastest (brainerd and Siegler 2003; quoted in
'epidemics and economics: the economic consequences of Disease' 2003). In

Table 7-2: Total Exports as Share of Gross Domestic Product and Estimated
Economic Shocks

estimated reduction in annual GDP
Growth, 2006 (percentage points) economy total exports as Share of GDP

Singapore 258.3 22.8

Hong Kong 186.8 17.5

Malaysia 125.4 11.3

thailand 68.2 11.7

Korea 56.4 6.3

Philippines 48.9 3.0

china 45.2 5.3

Indonesia 42.0 2.8

Notes : the economic shocks include both demand and supply shock. the estimate assumes
four quarters of strong demand contraction globally. GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Bloom, de Wit, and Carangal-San Jose (2005).