Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
plague (black Death) in the 14th century, when the drastic depopulation resulted
in decades of continent-wide crop and livestock deficiencies (Herlihy 1997).
contemporary epidemics such as SarS led to a substantial decline in consumer
demand, especially for travel and retail sales services. according to the world bank,
SarS caused an immediate economic loss of about 2 percent of east asian regional
gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2003 (brahmbhatt 2005). an
estimate made by bio economic research associates placed the cost of SarS to the
global economy as high as US$50 billion (newcomb 2005). Most economic analysts
agree that depending on the severity of the disease and sustainability of its impacts,
spread of an influenza pandemic would take a much heavier toll on the national,
regional, and global economies. the world bank estimates that the global costs could
reach US$800 billion in one year (see table 7-1). a report published by conference
board of canada (2005) claims that a large-scale influenza pandemic would 'throw
the world into a sudden and possibly dramatic global recession'. another report from
bMo nesbitt burns concurs, stating that the pandemic's economic impact could be
'comparable, at least for a short time, to the Great Depression of the 1930s' (cooper
and coxe 2005).
all these estimates and predictions suggest a negative dynamic between infectious
disease and the economy. In reality, though, the economic impact of epidemics is
much more complex than originally thought. as Maureen lewis (2001) pointed out,
apparently obvious microeconomic effects might not be reflected in macroeconomic
Table 7-1: Estimates of the Economic Damage from Pandemic Influenza
estimated economic
damage
Scope
comments
Source
US$88 billion to US$206
billion in current dollars
assumes 89 000-207 000
deaths and 314 000-
734 000 hospitalisations
in the U.S.; excluding
disruptions to commerce
and society
centers for Disease
Control (Meltzer
et
al. 1999)
national
(United
States)
US$181 billion in direct and
indirect health costs (for a
moderate pandemic with
no interventions); US$450
billion (worst-case scenario)
not including disruptions
in trade and other costs to
business and industry
U.S. Department of
Health and Human
Services (2005)
US$113.4 billion or 2.6% of
regional GDP (mild shock);
US$296.9 billion or 6.8%
of regional GDP (severe
shock)
assumes an attack rate of
20% and a case fatality
rate of 0.5%; does not
include disease-associated
medical costs
asian Development
bank (bloom, de
wit, and carangal-
San Jose 2005, 6-7,
tables 1, 2)
regional
(asia)
total costs could reach
US$800 billion in one year
assumes a case fatality
rate of less than 0.1% in
the U.S.
world bank
(brahmbhatt 2005;
newcomb 2005)
Global
Note
: GDP = gross domestic product.
