Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
(a)
Global population
(billions)
(b)
Developing regions population
(billions)
Increased urban
migration
8.3
9.6
2.7
6.9
5.7
Developing
Developed
8.3
3.1
Rural
Urban
3.0
5.7
2.1
5.6
2.1
1.7
2.6
1.2
1.3
0.5
0.9
1960
2010
2050
1960
2010
2050
Urban/rural ratio
0.3
0.8
2.0
FIGURE 3.5
(a) Population growth in developed and developing regions. (From VFRC.
2012.
Global Research to Nourish the World
. International Fertilizer Development Center.)
(b) Population growth in developing regions segregated by rural and urban increases.
(Adapted from VFRC. 2012.
Global Research to Nourish the World
. International Fertilizer
Development Center.)
(a)
(b)
Global food demand increases
2050 vs. 2010
Developing regions food demand
(2010 = 100)
187
Greater absolute
increase than in past
Developing
87%
54
100
Rural
Urban
Developed
6%
49
134
28
2.5×
2
7
51
Overall
60%
1960
2010
2050
FIGURE 3.6
(a) Overall estimated global food demand increase segregated by developed
and developing regions. (Adapted from VFRC. 2012.
Global Research to Nourish the World
.
International Fertilizer Development Center.) (b) Estimated food demand increase in devel-
oping regions segregated by rural and urban demand. (Adapted from VFRC. 2012.
Global
Research to Nourish the World
. International Fertilizer Development Center.)
experiencing only a slight increase (6%). Globally, yields will need to increase at a
yearly compound rate of about 1.38%; however, in developing countries, the increase
is estimated to be 1.8%. Furthermore, a significant infrastructure expansion will be
required to transport up to 2.5 times more food from the rural areas of production to
the urban markets (Figure 3.6a and b).
3.2.2 F
ooD
p
roDuction
anD
the
e
ssential
r
ole
oF
p
lant
n
utrients
Historical and scientific evidence shows that nutrients removed by harvested crops
have to be replenished to maintain soil fertility and agricultural productivity. Before
the availability and use of mineral fertilizers, various techniques, including shift-
ing agriculture, use of animal manure and human waste, and crop rotations with
legumes, were utilized in attempts to replenish nutrients removed by crops. Most
of these attempts were not successful, and as soil fertility declined, increased food
