Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
3.2
POPULATION GROWTH AND FOOD PRODUCTION
3.2.1 D emographic c hanges
The world population has progressively increased since the beginning of agriculture
around 10,000 BC. More recent major breakthroughs in agriculture science, such as
the recognition that plants need nutrients in the 19th century and the invention and
commercialization of the Haber-Bosch process in the early 20th century, coupled
with the beginning of modern medicine, extended longevity and human fertility
rates, thereby accelerating the population growth rate (Figure 3.4). Since the 1960s,
the population has more than doubled and is estimated to increase up to 9.6 bil-
lion in 2050 (Figure 3.5a). While population increases in the developed regions are
expected to remain virtually unchanged at 1.3 billion, the developing regions will
see increases from the 2010 estimate of 5.7 billion to 7.9 billion. In addition to this
significant increase, the regions will also experience massive urbanization, result-
ing in a shift of the urban/rural ratio from 0.8 to 2.0 (Figure 3.5b) (United Nations
[UN] 2013).
The estimated required food production increase of about 60% by 2050 means
that, in absolute terms, production increases must be greater than those achieved dur-
ing the “Green Revolution.” As with population growth, most (87%) of the increased
food demand will occur in developing countries, with the developed countries
12
10
Commercialization of Haber-Bosch process
2020
8
Developing
countries
Discovery of modern drugs
(sulfa and antibiotics)
6
1975
4
Beginning of
modern medicine
2
Beginning of
agriculture
1913
1850
1650
Recognition—plants
need nutrients
Developed
countries
0
10,000
BC
8000
BC
6000
BC
1000
BC
Beginning of
Christian era
2000
FIGURE 3.4 Impact of scientific advances in agriculture and medicine on global popula-
tions. (Adapted from Borlaug, N. 2003. Feeding a world of 10 billion people: The TVA/IFDC
legacy. Third Travis P. Hignett Memorial Lecture from International Fertilizer Development
Center, Muscle Shoals, AL, March 14, 2003.)
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