Reflections and Futures - Tourism and Trails: Cultural, Ecological and Management Issues - page 255

spaces. There are some models on carrying capacity that apply to trails and
routes, but more need to be developed specifically for this unique context.
Futures
Predicting the future is difficult. At best we can adopt scenario planning
or rely on forecasting based on historical data and current knowledge
(Yeoman, 2012). Futures writing has concentrated predominantly on tour-
ism as a global phenomenon as opposed to looking at the futures of certain
types of tourism or indeed particular tourism spaces. Gazing into the future
of routes as recreation and tourism spaces depends on what future one is
referring to - the immediate future, medium future (next decade) or distant
future (a lifespan away). Also, in forming a vision of the future, we must ask
three questions. First, what do we envision may happen (possible futures)?
Second, what is most likely to happen (probable futures)? And finally, what
would we wish to happen (preferable futures) (Page & Connell, 2010: 471)?
In the case of trails it is perhaps better to suggest that forecasting is preferred
over scenario planning.
With regard to 'possible' futures, we will unlikely see considerable
changes in the importance of trails and routes as providers of leisure and
tourism experiences. The numbers and types of trails will not dramatically
increase or decline. Rather, it is more likely that routes will become more
'themed', with this theming providing another brand identity mechanism for
regions and how they are marketed.
The level of demand in terms of participation may be influenced by a
number of factors, including the rise in individualism in leisure, particu-
larly as a result of social networking, increased concerns with people's
health, an aging population and the emergence of new tourism markets.
The first driver has the potential to limit the levels of participation within
the younger cohorts in populations at large; it may even be linked to the
second driver as a less active society increases the likelihood of rising levels
of obesity and ill health. The irony is that to overcome poor health, society
needs to engage better in active forms of recreation - opportunities that
trails and routes can provide. The third driver may result in a rise of par-
ticipation in more active forms of leisure and recreation, and, within a
broader tourism context, trails in urban and rural settings will offer suit-
able environments for walking, cycling and touring. The retirees of today
tend to be healthier and better off financially than their forebears, so
opportunities for travel lean in their favor. The fourth driver is unlikely to
have a major impact on demand for recreation trails, as the market from
the emergent economies (e.g. China and Russia) is unlikely to be interested
in exploring new landscapes and destinations as expressed through trails
and routes. However, world famous linear trails and other resources, such