Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Global prosperity (GP): A convergence of global prosperity towards that enjoyed
by the more developed world economies will be driven by energy.
·
The level of energy intensity (EI): This is the rate of energy use per unit of eco-
nomic activity. Economic activities vary in their demand for energy.
·
The emission level (EL) of carbon dioxide per watt of energy: Some energy
sources vary considerably in their emission of carbon dioxide and some produce
no GHG emissions. Even within the fossil fuel category, there is considerable vari-
ation. For example, natural gas releases far less carbon dioxide than coal or tar
(oil) sands. It is sad and ironic that at present, Canada is vigorously promoting the
latter energy source.
The relationship between emissions and these types of variables is sometimes simplified
as:
CO 2 emission = GPL × GP × EI × EL
In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) in which it explored this type of relationship by
including different demographic, economic and technological paths for the types of vari-
ables described for the twenty-first century. See: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/
sres-en.pdf for the Summary for Policymakers . The resulting SRES scenarios are grouped
according to a storyline and associated families.
The A1 storyline and family explore a future of very rapid economic growth, a global
population peaking in mid-century and then a decline and a rapid introduction of new and
more efficient technologies. There is a general global convergence in levels of economic
development and of per capita income. There are three families within the A1 scenario.
Each family describes different possible paths of energy production and use: fossil intens-
ive (A1FI); nonfossil energy sources (A1T); or a balance across all sources (A1B).
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