Climate Change in the Arctic - The Changing Arctic Environment: The Arctic Messenger - page 312

The Long and the Short of It

ThisbringsourverybriefreviewofArcticclimatechangetoanend.However,thereismuch
more that should be said, for example, on ecological, health and socioeconomic ramifica-
tions. This is especially sointerms ofthe potential development ofhydrocarbon andmineral
resources, but I think we can now claim we have a sufficiently robust understanding of how:

· Self-regulation of the world climate system is being severely impacted by our ever-

increasing injection of more and more GHGs into the atmosphere.

· The result has been a global mean 100-year surface warming temperature trend

from 1906 to 2005 of 0.74°C.

· Computer models project that the future will unfold to eventually settle on a new

and warmer global climate and empirical observations around the world all tend to
support the models.

· The geological record and climate models agree that even if we could reach zero

GHG emissions in this century, temperatures would hardly drop in the next 1,000
years due to the huge stockpile of CO 2 we have added to the atmosphere.

· The annual average Arctic temperature has increased at about twice the rate of the

rest of the world. Alaska, western Arctic Canada and central Arctic Russia are
warming more than other regions. In Alaska and western Arctic Canada, average
winter temperatures have risen by between 3 and 4°C.

· Arctic snow, glacial and ice sheet ice and permafrost are disappearing much faster

than had been expected. Mean global sea levels are projected to rise by 0.9-1.6
metres by 2100, but regional variability will give significantly higher levels in some
areas. The sea level rise will not be geographically uniform.

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