Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Distant Peace
There is no chance of the main dispute over Kashmir and the Line of Control being solved
permanently in the foreseeable future, and military and other sensitivities on both sides
make it difficult to settle the border at Siachen and Sir Creek. That situation could con-
tinue, without severe disruption to either country, so long as extremists in the ISI and ter-
rorist groups based in Pakistan do not seize power or escalate attacks. Almost inevitably,
however, a terrorist attack in India, or a major border incident, will raise tensions. The risk,
says Ahmed Rashid, a leading Pakistani writer on terrorism and diplomacy, is that 'the
proxy wars' that India and Pakistan wage could escalate. 'Terrorist groups who have been
sponsored by the Pakistani military in the past and are not under any control now could cre-
ate a war syndrome on the border, just as the 2008 suicide attack in Mumbai by Lashkar-e-
Taiba did when 166 Indians were killed. Likewise, India is needling Pakistan by allegedly
backing separatists in Baluchistan'.
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Policy planners should not expect the two countries to make peace for many years ahead.
It is inconceivable that China would allow Pakistan to make a deal while it continues to
have border and other differences with India. There will be constructive periods, as there
have been, when successful attempts are made to build ties, though there will always be the
risk that extremists in Pakistan will launch terror attacks to destabilize talks if they seem
to be successful. What is needed in parallel is leadership from the prime ministers in both
countries to develop the exchanges and possible agreements on trade, investment, visas and
cross-border links. If these help Pakistan's economy to develop, optimists believe that its
army might realize that it should slow down militancy and border clashes in order not to
disrupt trade co-operation. At the same time, India would have to tolerate Pakistan regu-
larly (but ineffectually) raising the issue of Kashmir in international meetings such as the
United Nations.
India would need to develop a more coherent and tough policy than it has displayed in
recent years, when Manmohan Singh's determination to keep talks going has undermined
the ability of his government and army to retaliate. This is a neighbourhood example of
how India needs to toughen up its habitually soft approach to international diplomacy and
set firm boundaries for co-operation that Pakistan can accept or reject. A consensus would
have to be reached in India with other political parties and with the states. International
pressure could help to persuade Pakistan's civilian government and the military to co-op-
erate. Unless that happens, it will be business as usual, with occasional trouble on the LoC,
possible terrorist attacks, and some talks - and with Pakistan being unable to reap the be-
nefits of trade and investment co-operation with India.
