Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
9
Beyond the Primer: Next
Generation Hydrological Models
We must admit that our paper is more of an artist's conception than a blueprint
Freeze and Harlan, 1969
Predictions of hydrologic responses now need to allow for adaptive temporal evolution
of vegetation, soils, and river networks (among other things) under human-induced envi-
ronmental changes, although the changes might occur at different and varying rates. This
requires hydrologists to develop a new understanding of how all the associated components
(climate, soils, vegetation, and topography) have coevolved in the past and how they might
do so in the future
Thorsten Wagener
et al.
2010
9.1 Why are New Modelling Techniques Needed?
In considering the next generation of hydrological models, it is important to distinguish between different
reasons for modelling. What the next generation model looks like might well be different for different
purposes. If the interest is only to show that we “understand our science and its complex interelated
phenomena” (see the quotation at the head of Chapter 1) then a model structure might look very different
to that needed to make flood forecasts at a particular site of interest. Using a complex process model for
flood forecasting might not be sensible either in improving the accuracy of predictions or in providing
forecasts with sufficient lead time for people to react to a flood warning. In other cases, a model that
predicts the fluxes in different flow pathways might be needed. Such models might be used to explore
the effects of land management on water fluxes and water quality, for example. There are also increasing
demands to understand the links between hydrology and ecology in effecting improvements to the water
environment and maintaining biodiversity, demands given impetus in Europe by the requirements of the
Water Framework Directive.
