Energy from My Backyard - The Renaissance of Renewable Energy - page 243

Table 7.2. Overview of key parameters under the IEA baseline scenario and under
a scenario that meets the target of limiting CO 2 below 440 parts per million by 2050

Unit Baseline Baseline < 440

ppm

< 440
ppm

2010 2030 2050 2030 2050

Global
population

billion 7 8.3 9.1 8.3 9.1

Global GDP/
capita

thousand
USD

10.9 17.4 24.3 17.4 24.3

Energy
supply

EJ/year 530 645 749 474 407

Renewables % 13 25 37 39 77

CO 2
emissions

Gt
CO 2 /year

27.4 38.5 56.6 36.7 7.1

Note: In the first scenario, the share of renewables in the energy mix will rise almost
threefold, while in the second they will become the dominant energy source by 2050.
Sources: Fischedick et al. ( 2011 ) and IEA ( 2012a ).

Currently, we harness less than 2.5 per cent of the available technical potential of
renewable energy. All 150 available energy scenarios therefore agree that technology is not
a serious constraint to the expansion of renewables. All of these scenarios foresee major
growth of renewables, but no single renewable technology is expected to be dominant
at a global level (Fischedick et al. 2011 ; IEA 2012a ). Solar power has by far the largest
potential, followed by geothermal, wind, and biomass (see Figure 7.9 ). Although the
potential of bioenergy has been revised downward in recent years because of sustainability
concerns (see Chapter 6 ) , most scenarios indicate that bioenergy (mainly biofuels) will
experience the most growth by 2050, followed by wind and solar.