Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
7.4 A Brighter Vision: Imagining What's Possible
Analysts at agencies such as the IEA are paid to be hard-nosed. Their job is to advise
governments on the probable future of energy use. The trouble with focusing on what is
probable rather than what is possible is that one automatically tends towards a conservative
perspective and an assumption that change will be slow and incremental. Such analysis
excludes the visionary. Yet, who but a visionary could have predicted many of the
technological and social changes that have taken place in the last century?
Thomas Watson, then chairman of IBM, famously predicted in 1943, “I think there
earlier, Mark Twain predicted the invention of a device eerily similar to the Internet.
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How could the head of a computer company get it so wrong, and a writer, without any
technical expertise, come so close to foreseeing the most important technical innovation of
the modern age? The reason lies in the differing perspectives of the two men. Whereas Mr.
Watsonwasfocusedonmakingproductsthatwouldsellwellduringhistenureaschairman,
Mr. Twain had the luxury of allowing his imagination free rein. If we are to extricate
ourselves from our current dependence on carbon-based energy, and develop societies and
economies that are sustainable, the ability, and indeed the audacity, to explore the outer
reaches of the possible rather than the near shores of the probable will be needed.
The largest but least tapped form of energy on Earth is solar radiation. According
to Gerhard Knies of the DESERTEC Foundation, installing solar technology in a small
fraction of the world's deserts (an area roughly the size of Japan) would suffice to meet
global energy supply. DESERTEC is a highly ambitious and visionary project that has
the support of some of Europe's biggest power utilities (e.g., E.ON, RWE, and Abengoa).
Its goal is to meet a substantial part of the energy needs of the Middle East and North
Africa, and about 10 per cent of Europe's electricity demand, by 2030 (see
Figure 7.6
). The
abundanceandintensityofsunlightintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,resultinginhigher
per unit yield than is possible in Europe, would compensate for the additional transmission
costs and electricity losses through long-distance cables. By transforming some of the
Earth's least productive land into a precious energy reservoir, DESERTEC has the potential
to boost sustainable energy supply while side-stepping social and environmental objections
