Energy from My Backyard - The Renaissance of Renewable Energy - page 231

Figure 7.3. Share of global energy demand. In the IEA baseline scenario, global energy
demand rises by more than one-third in the period to 2035, driven by rising living
standards in China, India and the Middle East. Source: IEA ( 2012a ) (modified).
All of these scenarios envisage a significant growth of total primary energy production
throughout the first half of the twenty-first century. According to the IEA, primary energy
production will rise from its current 530 exajoules to between 600 and 1,000 exajoules by
2050 (Chum et al. 2011 ) . Where the scenarios differ most is in their predictions of which
energy sources will predominate ( Section 7.6 ) .
In the IEA 'Current Policies' scenario, which assumes no major change in energy
economics, demand in rich countries will rise only slightly between now and 2035, while
the 'emerging' economies of Asia and the Middle East will drive global energy markets. 2
Major shifts in the global energy economy are expected as unconventional fossil
resources (mainly the Canadian tar sands and the U.S. shale gas) are unlocked. Natural gas
will overtake coal as the largest primary energy source and North America will become a
net oil exporter by 2030. As the United States becomes self-sufficient in fossil fuels, the
shift of oil trading towards Asian markets will accelerate. By 2035, almost 90 per cent of
the oil resources drilled in the Middle East will be sold to Asia (IEA 2012a ).
Figure 7.4. Net oil and gas import dependency in selected countries according to the
IEA baseline scenario. While dependency is expected to rise in many countries, the
United States will move to the opposite direction. Source: IEA ( 2012a ) (modified).
Oil production will grow, but less rapidly than other sources, and nuclear power will
maintain its current share of electricity generation. Renewables, driven by incentives,
falling unit costs, and rising fossil fuel prices, will have the highest growth rate, and even
in the sober IEA baseline scenario they represent half of the projected 5,890 gigawatts of
global power capacity added by 2035 (see Figure 7.5 ) . 3 However, government subsidies
for renewable energy will continue to be dwarfed by those for fossil fuels (in 2011 global
fossil fuels subsidies amounted to $US523 billion, six times more than all subsidies to
renewables). This policy will continue to distort energy markets, and although the share of
fossil fuels in the global energy mix is projected to fall from 85 per cent to 75 per cent by
2035, they will remain dominant (IEA 2012a ; Figure 7.1 ).