Connections - Intertwingled: Information Changes Everything - page 65

tial analysis of the image, with increasing sophistication as you go along, is demolished by the existence
of so much feedback . lxxv
This explains our susceptibility to optical illusions and the fallibility of eyewitness testimony.
The truth lies in between “seeing is believing” and “believing is seeing” and this prediction isn't
only about eyesight.
Figure 3-10. In vision, there's more feedback than input.
Music, management, and imagination are all about prediction. A song tickles us by surprise,
managers count on cause and effect, and we dream in folded feedback, exploring the conse-
quences of our own predictions. Anticipation is behind all we think and do. In the words of Jeff
Hawkins, “Prediction is not just one of the things your brain does. It is the primary function of
the neocortex and the foundation of intelligence.” lxxvi
It's impossible not to predict the future, yet we get it wrong all the time. We use our “theory of
mind” to anticipate the actions and reactions of colleagues and customers, but people are full of
surprises. Experiments help, but induction has its limits. Even minimum viable products can't
predict the long now at scale. Inevitably we must move forward, often at a fast clip, but it pays
to be aware of error even as we race along. Often our mistakes are small, obvious, and easy to
fix. It's the big ones we must look out for. They're not only hard to correct but amazingly hard to
see. Chris Argyris, a pioneer in organizational learning, had it right when he advocated double-
loop learning, a concept he introduces by analogy.
A thermostat that automatically turns on the heat whenever the temperature in a room drops below 68
degrees is a good example of single-loop learning. A thermostat that could ask, “Why am I set at 68 de-
grees?” and then explore whether or not some other temperature might more economically achieve the
goal of heating the room would be engaging in double-loop learning. l xxvii
Of course, double-loop learning in organizations is rare. Defensiveness in cognition and culture
makes it hard to question basic beliefs. Successful people and organizations are the worst, as
they've never learned to learn from failure. Experts and executives alike deny the problem, shift
blame, and shut down; and the organization runs efficiently off a cliff. We can get better, but it
takes commitment. We must confront the assumptions behind our ideas. We must surface con-
flicting opinions and recast them as hypotheses to be tested in public. And we must be willing to
critique and change our goals, values, frameworks, policies, and strategies.