Nature - Intertwingled: Information Changes Everything - page 3

ruptions are often explained away as rare, unpredictable, and unworthy of further study. But
that's an ignorant, dangerous conclusion. The truth is that the model is wrong.
Figure 1-2. Systems are subject to exogenous shocks.
We make this mistake over and over in the systems we build. We work on websites as if they ex-
ist in a vacuum. We forge ahead without mapping the ecosystems of users and content creators.
We measure success and reward performance without knowing how governance and culture
impact individuals and teams. We plan, code, and design wearing blinders, then act surprised
when we're blindsided by change.
If we hope to understand and manage a complex, dynamic system, we must practice the art of
frame shifting. When our focus is narrow, our ability to predict or shape outcomes is nil. So we
must learn to see our systems anew by soliciting divergent views. And when we uncover hidden
connections, information flows, and feedback loops that transgress the borders of our mental
model, we must change the model.
In the era of ecosystems, seeing the big picture is more important than ever, and less likely. It's
not simply that we're forced into little boxes by organizational silos and professional specializa-
tion. We like it in there. We feel safe. But we're not. This is no time to stick to your knitting. We
must go from boxes to arrows. Tomorrow belongs to those who connect.
If this talk of change disturbs you, that's good. Learning makes us all uncomfortable. When
faced with disruption, we're tempted to turn back. But if we press on, we build skills and under-
standing that may prove invaluable to us in the future. Once we overcome our initial fear and
discomfort, we may even begin to enjoy ourselves. Some of life's best paths start out on slippery
rocks. Or at least that's what I tell myself as I stand on the beach of Isle Royale, with my back-
pack, map and compass, anxiously gnawing on a hunk of meatless jerky.
It's not that I'm afraid of the wolves. There aren't many left. I'm worried because I've never been
backpacking. My hikes always end in hotels. The last time I slept in a tent was at Foo Camp, a
hacker event during which attendees camp in an apple orchard behind the offices of O'Reilly
Media. And I couldn't sleep. I was cold. My hips hurt. That morning, shivering in my tent but
grateful for the orchard Wi-Fi, I fired up my Apple MacBook Pro and booked a hotel. But now,
I'm headed into the wilderness alone, for four days and four nights. I'm 44 years old, and this is
my first time.