Hardware Reference
In-Depth Information
100G
10G
1G
100M
10M
1M
100K
10K
1K
100
10
1
1965
512M
2G
1G
256M
16M
64M
1M
4M
64K
256K
4K
16K
1K
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
1990
1995
2000 2005
2010
Figure 1-8.
Moore's law predicts a 60 percent annual increase in the number of
transistors that can be put on a chip. The data points given above and below the
line are memory sizes, in bits.
solved (Bose, 2004, Kim et al., 2003). However, the reality of shrinking transistors
is that the thickness of these devices is soon to be only a few atoms. At that point
transistors will consist of too few atoms to be reliable, or we will simply reach a
point where further size decreases will require subatomic building blocks. (As a
matter of good advice, it is recommended that anyone working in a silicon fabrica-
tion plant take the day off on the day they decide to split the one-atom transistor!)
Despite the many challenges in extending Moore's law trends, there are hopeful
technologies on the horizon, including advances in quantum computing (Oskin et
al., 2002) and carbon nanotubes (Heinze et al., 2002) that may create opportunities
to scale electronics beyond the limits of silicon.
Moore's law has created what economists call a
virtuous circle
. Advances in
technology (transistors/chip) lead to better products and lower prices. Lower
prices lead to new applications (nobody was making video games for computers
when computers cost $10 million each although when the price dropped to
$120,000 M.I.T. students took up the challenge). New applications lead to new
markets and new companies springing up to take advantage of them. The existence
of all these companies leads to competition, which in turn creates economic de-
mand for better technologies with which to beat the others. The circle is then
round.
Another factor driving technological improvement is Nathan's first law of soft-
ware (due to Nathan Myhrvold, a former top Microsoft executive). It states: ''Soft-
ware is a gas. It expands to fill the container holding it.'' Back in the 1980s, word
