Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
uncertainty maps (
Fig. 1.4
A). India, the nation with the largest PAR of
P.
vivax
globally, had disproportionately little prevalence data available. Given
that parts of India are predicted to experience intense transmission, high-
resolution mapping is needed to identify foci of transmission and this will
only be achieved through improved surveillance coverage or the release of
data that have not been previously shared. The uncertainty map also high-
lights lack of data in Myanmar. Regions of high uncertainty, which were
also present in the population-weighted estimates, correspond with areas
plotted to be highly endemic (
Pv
PR
1-99
> 7%). Improved certainty in pre-
dictions in this country would be beneficial as neighbouring Thailand and
China work towards malaria elimination. There would also be utility in the
provision of contemporary data as progress towards elimination is made (e.g.
in China) and transmission dynamics are therefore altered.
Asia-Pacific
. Coverage of annual clinical incidence and prevalence sur-
vey data was relatively strong for this region (
Fig. 1.3
B1). However, the
vast majority of the prevalence data originated from Indonesia. Sites on
the island of New Guinea and parts of Borneo had very sparse prevalence
data and were therefore predicted with greater uncertainty (
Fig. 1.4
B1 and
B2). These regions have some of the most intense
P. vivax
transmission set-
tings in the world. Improved surveillance would help localise hotspots and
generate prime targets for control. The Philippines should also be noted as
being a region with high uncertainty that was retained even after account-
ing for population density in the predictions. The smaller islands of this
region would benefit from improved vector data collection since many had
very little vector data available. This would improve the fidelity of the spe-
cies distribution models in this region to better inform control decisions.
The Americas
. Relative to other regions with stable
P. vivax
transmission,
there were very little prevalence data available for this region (
Fig. 1.3
C1).
Improved PR data from this part of the world, particularly those countries
with intense transmission (Brazil, Honduras and Nicaragua), would benefit
P.
vivax
mapping efforts. High-resolution mapping is needed to accurately map
these highly focalized transmission settings, and this will require broad cov-
erage survey data. There was good vector data coverage in this region, which
is likely linked to the research and implementation of successful vector con-
trol efforts in the Americas. However, data collection on vector occurrence
could be further improved. Some of the countries with the highest transmis-
sion (Honduras and Nicaragua) had the fewest occurrence records available.
Africa+
. The
P. vivax
data available from Africa+ were also sparse, a reflec-
tion of the perception that the parasite is largely absent from the continent
