Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 1.4, cont'd
The uncertainty associated with
P. vivax
malaria endemicity pre-
dictions is shown at the regional levels: Asia (A), Asia-Pacific (B), the Americas (C) and
Africa+ (D). Panel 1 in A-D shows the ratio of the posterior inter-quartile range to the
posterior mean prediction at each pixel. Large values indicate greater uncertainty: the
model predicts a relatively wide range of
Pv
PR
1-99
as being equally plausible given the
surrounding data. Conversely, smaller values indicate a tighter range of values have
been predicted and, thus, a higher degree of certainty in the prediction. Panel 2 in each
region shows the same index multiplied by the underlying population density and res-
caled to 0-1 to correspond to Panel 1. Higher values indicate areas with high uncertainty
and large populations. Areas of no risk within
Pv
MECs are shown in grey and countries
not endemic for
P. vivax
or outside the named region are in white. For a colour version of
this igure, the reader is referred to the online version of this topic.
survey data were sparse across much of Africa, the prevalence predictions
could borrow strength from the Duffy negativity map because predictions
of prevalence were restricted to a narrower range of possible values.
