A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 253

Table C1. (continued)

Node Mutual Information Node Title

U 0.24141 reproduction

D 0.19993 change in foraging habitat distribution

G 0.04235 relocation possible

A 0.02866 foraging habitat value

C1 0.01856 human disturbance

h 0.00537 crowding tolerance

C2 0.00432 pollution

Test 4: Sensitivity of Node D1—Overall Population Outcome to Selected Intermediate Nodes b
F2 0.66422 factor a: habitat threats
l2 0.56624 vital rates
A1 0.05253 factor b: direct mortalities
G 0.04235 relocation possible
A6 0.03150 factor e: other factors (natural or man-made)
A4 0.01039 factor c: disease and predation
a This does not include the listing factor nodes included in test 2 above.
b This includes all (6) nodes that are two links distant from the output node.

Table C2. Sensitivity Group 2: Sensitivity of Submodels
Node Mutual Information Node Title
Test 5: Sensitivity of Node A4—Factor C Disease and Predation

T 0.39016 parasites and disease

T2 0.06593 predation

Test 6: Sensitivity of Node C2—Pollution

R4 0.69005 hydrocarbons/oil spill

T1 0.13542 contaminants

Test 7: Sensitivity of Node C1—Human Disturbance

B1 0.45796 bear-human interactions

R1 0.12450 oil and gas activity

J 0.08941 shipping

J1 0.01729 tourism

Test 8: Sensitivity of Node A—Foraging Habitat Value
S1 0.51589 foraging habitat character
F 0.04028 alternate regions available
R3 0.00105 alternate prey availability
R2 0.00100 relative ringed seal
availability
Test 9: Sensitivity of Node D—Change in Foraging Habitat Distribution
M 0.33239 ecoregion

C 0.32674 foraging habitat absence

change

N 0.06131 shelf distance change (km)