A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 248

Table B10. (continued)

Overall Population Outcome

Node C4: Numerical
Response

Node C3:
Distribution Response

Same
as Now larger Smaller Rare Extinct

Same as now same as now 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Same as now reduced but resident 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0

Same as now transient visitor 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0

Same as now extirpated 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Reduced density same as now 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

Reduced density reduced but resident 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0

Reduced density transient visitor 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0

Reduced density extirpated 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Rare same as now 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0

Rare reduced but resident 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2

Rare transient visitor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3

Rare extirpated 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Absent same as now 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Absent reduced but resident 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Absent transient visitor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Absent extirpated 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Table B11. Node F2: Factor A habitat Threats

level of habitat Threat

Node B: Foraging
habitat Quantity
Change

Node D:
Change in Foraging
habitat Distribution

Node A:
Foraging habitat
Value

Minor
Restriction

Major
Restriction

Improvement No Effect

0 to 20 improved availability better 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0 to 20 improved availability same as now 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0 to 20 improved availability worse 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0

0 to 20 same as now better 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0 to 20 same as now same as now 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0

0 to 20 same as now worse 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0

0 to 20 reduced availability better 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0

0 to 20 reduced availability same as now 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0

0 to 20 reduced availability worse 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2

0 to 20 greatly reduced availability better 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4

0 to 20 greatly reduced availability same as now 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6

0 to 20 greatly reduced availability worse 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8

0 to 20 unavailable better 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

0 to 20 unavailable same as now 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

0 to 20 unavailable worse 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

-20 to 0 improved availab better 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0

-20 to 0 improved availab same as now 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0

-20 to 0 improved availab worse 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0

-20 to 0 same as now better 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0

-20 to 0 same as now same as now 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2

-20 to 0 same as now worse 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4

-20 to 0 reduced availability better 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2

-20 to 0 reduced availability same as now 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4

-20 to 0 reduced availability worse 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6

-20 to 0 greatly reduced availability better 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5

-20 to 0 greatly reduced availability same as now 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8

-20 to 0 greatly reduced availability worse 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0